Date of Award

Spring 5-5-2024

Document Type


Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts (BA)



First Advisor

Monica Das


This paper uses data from NFL games throughout the 2013-2019 seasons and analyzes the profitability of several correlated parlays and straight bets. Independent variables such as temperature, wind, prime time, and divisional game status were incorporated. Using OLS regression analysis, several strategies are presented that would have been profitable throughout the sample period. Results suggested that wagers on the under in divisional games with high wind were profitable. Furthermore, it was profitable to wager on a home favorite and over parlay in prime time and non-divisional games. Results also indicated it was profitable to wager on a home underdog and under parlay in divisional games when the spread line was between 10 and 13.5 points. However, these results were only profitable during the sample time period and are unlikely to persist due to the extremely efficient nature of bookmakers.

Included in

Economics Commons