Date of Award

2019

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Economics

First Advisor

Monica Das

Abstract

This paper uses pregame spread data to attempt to analyze the efficiency of the NFL betting market. I look at hot hand betting, performance during prime-time games, home field advantage, and favorites to test for inefficiencies in the market, thereby uncovering a profitable betting strategy. Using OLS regression analysis, I find no evidence of a profitable betting strategy betting on teams on streaks or home underdogs. However, my results suggest that it may be profitable to bet on the home team in prime-time games, regardless of their favorite or underdog status.

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