Date of Award
2019
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Department
Economics
First Advisor
Monica Das
Abstract
This paper uses pregame spread data to attempt to analyze the efficiency of the NFL betting market. I look at hot hand betting, performance during prime-time games, home field advantage, and favorites to test for inefficiencies in the market, thereby uncovering a profitable betting strategy. Using OLS regression analysis, I find no evidence of a profitable betting strategy betting on teams on streaks or home underdogs. However, my results suggest that it may be profitable to bet on the home team in prime-time games, regardless of their favorite or underdog status.
Recommended Citation
Anderson, Spencer, "NFL Betting Market Efficiency: Finding a Profitable Betting Strategy" (2019). Economics Student Theses and Capstone Projects. 121.
https://creativematter.skidmore.edu/econ_studt_schol/121