Date of Award

Spring 5-1-2025

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science (BS)

Department

Economics

First Advisor

Smitri Tiwari

Second Advisor

Rodrigo Schneider

Third Advisor

Monica Das

Abstract

This study investigates how signing a new contract impacts National Hockey League (NHL) player performance in the season immediately following the agreement. Drawing from incentive theory, tournament theory, and efficiency wage theory, the paper explores whether contract length and prior performance trends shape post-signing outcomes. Using a dataset of 241 NHL players who signed contracts prior to the 2023–24 season, the study analyzes changes in points per game (PPG) and even-strength time on ice (TOI) as indicators of offensive output and player utilization. The findings reveal that contract length alone does not determine post- signing performance. Instead, a player’s pre-contract trajectory significantly moderates outcomes: players already improving or stable tend to maintain or enhance performance under longer contracts, while those in decline often continue on that path, regardless of contract duration. These results suggest that blanket assumptions about “contract year effects” or post-contract complacency overlook the nuanced ways in which incentives, career stage, and trajectory intersect. The study contributes to the literature by focusing on short-term, post-signing performance and provides empirical insights for team executives seeking to align contract structures with strategic roster management.

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